Ohio: the battle of labels

The unique conditions on the ground in Ohio have prevented a traditional incumbent challenger race. The best-case scenario for an incumbent is to run on peace and prosperity. The quintessential sound bite is: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” Bush can’t run on this question, as, especially in the post-9/11 world, the answer is not exactly a resounding yes. Instead it depends on how you define the question and what you mean by better. Conventional wisdom believed that Ohio’s sluggish economy would give Kerry an edge, but Bush led in the polls throughout the summer and even during Kerry’s recent “debate surge” the state remains in a statistical tie. It seems that in many of the areas where Kerry’s economic criticism would pack the most punch the President’s values trumped economics. Voters worried about the economy and the war in Iraq were supporting Bush on issues like abortion, guns, and gay marriage.

The strategy in Ohio for Democrats has always been to win big in the urban areas and try not to lose big in rural and suburban areas that tend toward the GOP. The problem is how do you stop the bleeding in those rural and suburban areas? Al Gore didn’t solve this puzzle and lost. Kerry can’t afford to repeat this mistake, so when the early emphasis on straightforward economic and foreign policy critiques failed to move the numbers he changed tactics.

This past weekend Kerry staged a bus tour through Appalachia and hit a number of areas that traditionally vote Republican. Kerry purchased pumpkins at a local farm, bought a non-resident hunting license (and phrased it this way: "Can I get me a hunting license here?" Please raise your hand if you think Senator Kerry speaks like that at home.), and was given a twelve-gauge shotgun. Trying to hit every value button in one trip, Kerry even attended church (St. Mary’s Catholic Church in Chillicothe) and took communion. Just in case the symbolism was being lost, Kerry came right out and said: "I am not a liberal. I’m a moderate, thoughtful, practical person who looks for solutions."

This week Kerry continues to work this angle. This morning he was a href=”http://www.cleveland.com/newsflash/politics/index.ssf?/base/politics-7/10983662484190.xml&storylist=president”>duck hunting near Youngstown with the 12-gauge he was given last week. Later in the week he will give a “major speech” on his faith. For the next two weeks Kerry will concentrate on softening his image and trying to convince doubtful voters that he is an average guy just like them. Here is how CNN’s The Morning Grind puts it:

Meet John Kerry, regular guy. Just a baseball watchin', beer drinkin', geese huntin', gun totin', stem cell research supportin' guy. That's who we'll see today in Ohio, the jackpot battleground of regular guys.

Not surprisingly the Bush campaign is not content to let this assertion stand. In his post-debate stump speeches Bush pounds away at a simple message: Kerry is a risky choice in such perilous times. Kerry talks tough on Iraq but has no consistent position. The reason: in his heart he is a liberal dove afraid to use American power even when our national security is at stake. Kerry has a litany of complaints about domestic issues but has shown no real leadership on the issues. The reason: he is an out-of-touch liberal trying to pose as a moderate. Kerry likes to explain how he shares your values and how he will support middle class tax cuts but the record indicates that he is to your left across the board. Bush makes these points and then declares: “he can run but he cannot hide.”

Working with the Republican National Committee Bush has used his advertising dollars to reinforce this message. TV ads attack Kerry for being unwilling to support tort reform and thereby lower rising medical costs; for consistently voting to raise taxes on the middle class; for proposing a massive government run health care plan; for facilitating and pandering on foreign policy. Direct mail and phone messages remind voters that President Bush’s values best represent them and that Kerry is out of the mainstream. The theme that runs through all of these mediums is that Kerry is a risky choice come November. In a sense, the Bush theme is to blend personality and policy to portray Kerry as guilty of one big flip-flop: impersonating a moderate after a career of leftist rhetoric and policy.

Conservative 527 groups and organizations like the National Riffle Association are also on the offensive. I stopped in a gun and hunting store this week and they were passing out anti-Kerry fact sheets on the gun issue. The pro-gun groups are also organizing massive get out the vote efforts. Most conservatives would find it laughable that a few photo ops in churches and out hunting would swing voters but with a race this close you can’t take that chance. The Swift Boat ads are running regularly as are a variety of other 527 ads. . This is an attempt to counter the vast amounts spent by the leftist groups pouring money into Ohio. As the Kerry campaign attempts to sell there guy as moderate and likable, these conservative groups will try to remind voters that this last minute ploy doesn’t pass the laugh test.

What all of this comes down to is trust. Who do you trust to best fight the war on terror? Who do you trust to handle he economy? And who do you trust best represents your values and beliefs? Conventional wisdom held that Bush did best on the war on terror while Kerry did best on the economy, but in fact both candidates have made in-roads on issues connected to their perceived weaknesses. Ohioans have serious doubts about the war in Iraq and Kerry’s criticism of the President has resonance. Bush speaks surprisingly well on domestic issues and polls well on issues like education. As each candidate seeks to fight his opponent to a draw on his weak area and gain ground where he feels strong, it is not surprising that cultural values has emerged as the tie-breaker.

Kerry has clearly rejected the strategy of Al Gore. Unlike Gore who pulled out of Ohio early to focus on Florida, he will be a constant presence in Ohio for the next two weeks (after multiple stops this past weekend he is holding a rally in Dayton today) and he will continue to try and rebuff the liberal label that Gore seemed to embrace with his economic populism and his hard stances on abortion, guns, and affirmative action. Bush hasn’t visited the state in what seems like an eternity (two weeks actually) and depending on surrogates like Vice President Cheney (who recently toured the Cincinnati area and is in Toledo today) and fellow GOP Governors (even Ah-nold is said to be coming) instead, but he will not repeat the over-confidence of 2000. The state party and the Bush campaign have organized the largest and most ambitious get out the vote campaign in its history. Bush is headed to Canton on Friday where I expect him to continue to stress Kerry’s liberal record and lack of leadership. Bush may lose on some specific issues but he has always had a strong edge on questions of toughness and leadership.

Analysts have begun to focus on three states as the key to electoral victory: Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Whoever wins two out of three wins the presidency. The same can be said for the battle of labels. The battleground issues are the economy, terrorism, and values. Whoever wins two out of three wins Ohio. Look for President Bush to use taxes and “government run health care” to sow doubt on Kerry’s domestic agenda; to point to Kerry’s dovish record and vacillating rhetoric on national security to win on the war on terrorism issue; and to firmly plant the liberal label on Kerry on cultural values to solidify his base and win the rural and suburban ring voters. The plans are clear what remains to be seen is who will succeed.